Last Tuesday Emmanuel Macron resigned from his position as the French Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs, a move clearly made with the aim of making a run for the Presidency.
Macron has long been touted as a future French President, perhaps the last hope of the French centre-left in an election which current President François Hollande (if he chooses to run) looks certain to lose. Hollande’s extreme unpopularity is seen as having tainted the Socialist Party in the eyes of the French electorate, which would suggest that Macron’s association with the Hollande administration (he has been a Presidential advisor or Government Minister since 2012) would make a run for the Presidency difficult.
However, Macron has always been seen as being somewhat independent from Hollande and the Socialist Party as a whole. Although Macron was a member of the Socialist Party between 2006 and 2009, he is currently an independent — although he has set up a centrist movement known as ‘En Marche’, ostensibly not as a political party but as a way of fostering new centrist ideas. Although it seems as though this move was really a way of testing the waters in advance of a potential Presidential run, as was always suspected.
One of the things that gives Macron more of a chance of securing the French Presidency than incumbent Hollande, is that he is seen as being a pro-business. Somewhat predictably, Macron previously worked as an investment banker, something that centre-left politicians around the world seem to consider necessary in order to prove their pro-business credentials.
But Macron has already proved that he backs serious reform of the French economy, something that those on the left in France have often been accused of working against. In recent years Macron has attacked areas such as France’s 35-hour working week and large public sector — both seen as sacrosanct by the left. This has made him unpopular with many in the Socialist Party but has succeeded in burnishing his image as someone who could put an end to France’s economic travails.
But, although his expertise on the economy will prove beneficial to Macron’s candidacy, next year’s election is likely to be one which is fought primarily on the issues of terrorism and security. These are issues on which Macron is likely to lack gravitas when compared to his potential opponents in the upcoming Presidential race, most of whom have held high-level elected office before.
This is something else which distinguishes Macron from his opponents, he has never been elected. He worked as an advisor on Hollande’s 2012 Presidential campaign, and an economic advisor to Hollande as President, before being appointed as a Government Minister. But given that he was never elected, he was effectively working as a Civil Servant. If he were to be elected to the Presidency despite having never held elected office before, then this would be astonishing.
What’s more, as mentioned earlier, Macron is not currently a member of any political party. Although this could be seen as being beneficial in terms of detaching him from the perceived failures of the current Socialist Government, the negative is that it denies him any sort of party machine to aid him in winning the Presidency. This may make it extremely difficult to gain any sort of traction in the Presidential election. However, Macron has been busy recruiting an army of around 16,000 volunteers, mostly young people, who spend time door-knocking in an attempt to build the base of support that Macron lacks. They hope that this hard work can propel him to the Presidency.
But ultimately, the 2017 Presidential Election may prove to be too soon for Macron to win. Although he is currently the second most popular politician in France (after only Alain Juppé) it is hard to see him maintaining his position once the main parties unify (or at least attempt to unify) following the conclusion of their primary campaigns.
Given his inexperience and lack of a political party he doesn’t really have the base of support which is often said to be necessary for success in Presidential elections (although Donald Trump has proved in the United States that Presidential candidates can gain momentum without the help of the party machine). What’s more, his inexperience in terms of national security issues may make it hard for him to adequately respond to the types of questions that could be asked of him during the Presidential campaign.
However, although it is hard to see Macron winning the Presidency next year, taking part in the campaign (either as a candidate or a commentator of sorts) could boost his profile and put him on the right track to winning the Presidency in 2022. Whatever happens in next year’s election, expect Emmanuel Macron to be one of the most important figures in European politics in the years to come.