Predicting the Presidential Election.

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Who will win? Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

 

With the debates over and only a couple of weeks until the Presidential Election, the race is hotting up. Here’s my prediction for how each state will vote, and whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will win in November. 

 

Alabama

Doesn’t even need to be discussed. Has voted Republican in every Presidential Election since 1976, and this won’t change now.

Prediction: Trump.

Alaska

Typically a safe Republican state, and the last time Alaskans voted Democrat was 1964. Although polls suggest the race here is closer than normal this time around, it look likely that Trump will still win relatively comfortably.

Prediction: Trump.

Arizona

Typically Arizona is a relatively safe Republican State, although Arizonans did vote for Bill Clinton in 1996, therefore its definitely possible to turn the State. Polling suggests that this election could be the first since 1996 where Arizona turns blue. The latest polling by the Arizona Republic puts Clinton five points ahead, whilst the RealClearPolitics average has Clinton 1.5 ahead, making it look like a Clinton victory is coming in Arizona.

Prediction: Clinton.

Arkansas

Arkansas almost always votes Republican. They did vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but that was only because he was previously the State Governor. Polling for this years race has consistently suggested that Trump leads by over twenty points here, and so the result here is a foregone conclusion.

Prediction: Trump.

California

California is one of the safest Democratic states, and hasn’t voted Republican since the days of Ronald Reagan. This will be an easy Clinton win, probably by around twenty points.

Prediction: Clinton.

Colorado

Typically considered one of the swing states, Colorado is usually won by the ultimate election winner, with President Obama having won the state in both 2008 and 2012. Polling suggests that Clinton has a relatively comfortable lead here, with the RealClearPolitics average giving her an advantage of 8%.

Prediction: Clinton.

Connecticut

Has voted Democratic in the last six Presidential Elections and it would be very unlikely for the result to differ this time around. A comfortable Clinton win.

Prediction: Clinton.

Delaware

Has voted Democratic in the last six Presidential Elections and it would be very unlikely for the result to differ this time around. Clinton currently has a comfortable lead in the polls here.

Prediction: Clinton.

District of Columbia

Has always voted Democrat, will do so again this time around.

Prediction: Clinton.

Florida

Often described as the swingiest of all swing states, it was victory in Florida which won the Presidency for George W. Bush in 2000 despite him losing the popular vote to Al Gore, and it could be similarly significant this time around. Florida normally votes for the winner, with 1992 being the last time it didn’t. Obama won here by just 0.9% in 2012, but current polling suggests that Hillary Clinton has a lead of 4% going into the final stages of the campaign. Victory here could ultimately be crucial to her White House bid.

Prediction: Clinton.

Georgia

Georgia hasn’t been won by the Democrats since 1992, but even though it tends to be a relatively safe state for the Republicans, the margins are never huge. In short, it is winnable for the Democrats. Current polling provides a mixed picture, with most polling suggesting that Donald Trump is holding a slim lead, but others showing that Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead. Although Georgia can currently be considered a toss-up, I am doubtful that it is really a State that the Democrats can win, and there are certainly easier Republican targets for them to aim at (Arizona for example). At the moment it looks as though Trump will hold on here.

Prediction: Trump.

Hawaii

One of the safest Democratic states of all, Hawaii has only voted Republican in Presidential Elections twice in its history. Clinton will win comfortably here.

Prediction: Clinton.

Idaho

The last time Idaho was won by a Democrat was in 1964, and it’s been a safe Republican State ever since. There is no chance of that changing.

Prediction: Trump.

Illinois

A safe Democratic State which hasn’t voted Republican since 1988. Current polling puts Clinton close to twenty percent ahead of Trump.

Prediction: Clinton.

Indiana

Not considered a swing state, Indiana tends to be strongly Republican. However, the Hoosiers did vote narrowly for President Obama in 2008, before swinging sharply back toward the Republicans four years later. The RealClearPolitics polling average suggests that Trump has a lead of five percent, and although this may lessen as we near the end of the race, it looks as though he will hold on.

Prediction: Trump.

Iowa

Iowa is currently considered a battleground state, but Iowans have in fact voted Democrat in six of the past seven Presidential elections. However, current polling suggests that could be about to change. The latest polling suggests that Trump has pulled into a four point lead, however Hillary Clinton looks as though she is gaining support here, and by the time the election comes around she should probably have taken the lead. In any case, the margin here looks set to be one of the narrowest in this election.

Prediction: Clinton.

Kansas

One of the safest Republican States that there is. There is no question about who will triumph here.

Prediction: Trump.

Kentucky

Tends to vote Republican, although did vote for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. Trump has a very comfortable lead in the polls here, and it will remain that way.

Prediction: Trump.

Louisiana

Another Southern State which voted for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, but otherwise a safe Republican State. Looks set to be another comfortable Republican victory here.

Prediction: Trump.

Maine

One of only two States (the other being Nebraska) who don’t allocate their Electoral College votes on an ‘all or nothing’ basis. In Maine, the statewide winner gets two electoral votes, with one electoral vote up for grabs for the winner of each of Maine’s Congressional districts. As of yet this hasn’t resulted in a split electoral vote, and Maine has voted Democrat in the last six Presidential elections. But current polling suggests that the race is much more competitive this year than in previous years, with Clinton sitting on a five percent statewide lead (a significant fall from the fifteen percent margin President Obama led Mitt Romney by). But, although Clinton leads statewide, Trump leads in by around ten percent in Maine’s Second Congressional District, which would give him one electoral vote.

Prediction: Clinton (3 votes), Trump (1 vote).

Maryland

Very safe Democratic state which Hillary Clinton will win with ease.

Prediction: Clinton.

Massachusetts

Voted Democrat in the last seven Presidential elections, and a very safe Democratic state this time around. Another easy Clinton win.

Prediction: Clinton.

Michigan

During the Republican Primary Campaign, Michigan was a State picked by Trump as one he felt he could capture from the Democrats. Although Michigan has voted Democrat six presidential elections, Trump felt that as a State that was significantly affected by the financial crash, it could be his for the taking. However, it is looking as though this confidence was misplaced, and polling suggests that Clinton has a lead of about eleven percent here. Michigan will remain a safe Democratic state for now.

Prediction: Clinton.

Minnesota

The last time Minnesotans didn’t vote Democrat in a Presidential election was 1972, when Richard Nixon won a landslide victory. Although Hillary Clinton is leading here in the polls, it is looking much closer than usual. President Obama won Minnesota by ten percent in 2008, and by seven percent in 2012, Hillary Clinton currently leads by only around five percent. Nonetheless, it looks as though she will hold on, and carry the State.

Prediction: Clinton.

Mississippi

One of the safest Republican States out there. An easy Trump win.

Prediction: Trump.

Missouri

Missouri has voted Republican more than Democrat in recent years, however it does have a relatively good record at picking the overall winner. However, this was lessened in recent years, John McCain carrying the state by just 0.1% in 2008, and Mitt Romney winning comfortably in 2012. Polling suggests that Trump leads in Missouri by about 5–8%, and expect it to stay this way on polling day.

Prediction: Trump.

Montana

Montana has only voted for two Democrats in the last fifty years, and it looks sure to stay red this year. Trump will win comfortably.

Prediction: Trump.

Nebraska

In the same way as Maine, Nebraska allocated its votes by Congressional district with one for the winner of each of these, plus two for the statewide winner. A split has only occurred once, when President Obama narrowly won the Second Congressional District in 2008. The Clinton campaign has put a lot of money into the Second Congressional District, and it looks as though they may be able to replicated Obama’s 2008 success. The overall State vote will be comfortably won by Trump.

Prediction: Trump (4 votes), Clinton (1).

Nevada

A true swing state, Nevada tends to be one of the best predictors of the overall winner. The last time Nevada didn’t vote for the overall winner was 1976, where it voted for Gerald Ford ahead of Jimmy Carter. This year, most polling conducted in the State has given Hillary Clinton a relatively secure lead, with the current polling average giving her a 4.2% advantage in a three-way race. Expect it to stay this way on election day.

Prediction: Clinton.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire has voted Democratic in five of the last six elections, and although John Kerry carried the State in 2004, it generally has a good record of picking the overall winner. It is a State which Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson suggested he could have a chance of taking on election day, but his challenge seems to have fallen by the wayside a little. Clinton holds a comfortable lead here, and it looks set to remain that way.

Prediction: Clinton.

New Jersey

Although New Jersey has a Republican Governor, the former Republican Presidential candidate Chris Christie, it has voted Democrat in the last six Presidential elections. Polling suggests that Hillary Clinton has a twenty point lead here, and there is no way this will change.

Prediction: Clinton.

New Mexico

New Mexico is typically a Democratic State, and has voted this way in five of the past six presidential elections. Nonetheless, as a previous Governor of the State, it was a target for Gary Johnson. However, it looks like Clinton has done more than enough to win it, with polls suggesting that she holds a comfortable lead at this stage.

Prediction: Clinton.

New York

A safe Democratic State which hasn’t voted Republican since the days of Ronald Reagan. Despite Donald Trump suggesting early on the campaign that as a New York native he stood a chance here, polling has suggested otherwise. Clinton will win comfortably.

Prediction: Clinton.

North Carolina

A battleground state, North Carolina tends to be Republican more often than Democrat. Having said that, the State was carried by President Obama in 2008, only to be lost to Mitt Romney four years later. This year, Clinton has generally been in the lead here, but it has been very, very close. The latest poll gives her an advantage of just two percent. Despite this narrow lead, she has probably done enough to hold on.

Prediction: Clinton.

North Dakota

Very safe Republican State which has voted Democrat only once in the past 76 years.

Prediction: Trump.

Ohio

In recent years, Ohio has been a very strong predictor of the overall election winner. Since 1944, Ohioans have voted for the losing candidate just once, when in 1960 they selected Richard Nixon ahead of John F. Kennedy. Polling in Ohio for this race has constantly flitted between Clinton and Trump, and both candidates have held leads of up to seven points here at some point in this election. The current RCP Polling average gives Trump a lead of 0.6%, but recent polls have been tied suggesting that Clinton is gaining momentum here. I think that she has momentum enough to carry the state.

Prediction: Clinton.

Oklahoma

Has voted Republican in all but one of the Presidential Elections here since 1948, will definitely vote Republican again.

Prediction: Trump.

Oregon

Was a relatively strong Republican state until 1988, and since then has voted exclusively Democrat in Presidential elections. Polling suggests Clinton leads by about ten points here, and will win comfortably.

Prediction: Clinton.

Pennsylvania

Commonly considered a swing state, but in recent elections Pennsylvania has been carried by the Democratic candidate. This will continue this time.

Prediction: Clinton.

Rhode Island

Safe Democrat, and has only been won by the Republican candidate for President twice in the last fifty years. Easy Democratic win again.

Prediction: Clinton.

South Carolina

A safe Republican State which hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976 (when Jimmy Carter who was from neighbouring Georgia was on the ticket). Will definitely vote Republican again this time around.

Prediction: Trump.

South Dakota

Very safe Republican state which hasn’t voted Democrat since 1964.

Prediction: Trump.

Tennessee

In the last two elections, Tennessee has been carried by the Republican candidate for President, but other than this and 1960, the State has sided with every Presidential Election winner since 1928. However, evidence suggests that the State has become more Republican in recent years, and can now be considered safe.

Prediction: Trump.

Texas

Texas is usually a reliable Republican State, and has voted this way in every election since 1980. In 2012, Mitt Romney won here by almost sixteen percent. However, recent polls have suggested that the State is now in play for the Democrats, and that Trump’s lead here is down to around two or three percent. However, given the dominance of the Republican Party here, it would be a really tough ask for Clinton to win. I expect the Republicans to hold on, but the gains made here in this presidential election could prove very helpful to the Democrats in 2020 or 2024.

Prediction: Trump.

Click here to view a slightly more in-depth piece on whether Hillary Clinton could win in Texas. 

Utah

Utah is one of the oddest states in this years election. Usually a very safe Republican state, the State’s high Mormon population have not warmed to Trump at all, and the Republican candidate only came third in the caucus here earlier this year, behind Ted Cruz and John Kasich. Enter independent Presidential candidate Evan McMullin, a former Republican aide in the House of Representatives. Recent polling has put support for McMullin in Utah as high as 29 percent, just one percent adrift of Donald Trump. Although polls tend to overestimate support for third-party candidates early on in presidential races, they tend to be pretty accurate later on. Therefore, we should be able to be pretty confident that McMullin can hold on to this support, or increase it. McMullin has the advantage of being able to focus his campaigning efforts on Utah, whilst Donald Trump has to travel all around the country as part of his campaign. Therefore, with only a few percent to make up, I think that McMullin can do it and become the first third-party candidate since George Wallace in 1968, to carry a state.

Prediction: McMullin.

Click here to view a more in-depth piece on the state of play in Utah. 

Vermont

From 1856 to 1988, there was only one occasion that Vermont wasn’t carried by the Republican candidate for President, in 1964 when the State voted for Lyndon B. Johnson ahead of Barry Goldwater. However, since 1992 the state has been reliably Democratic. In addition, the Democrats could benefit from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is campaigning hard for Clinton. All in all, Vermont will be an easy Clinton win.

Prediction: Clinton.

Virginia

From 1953 until 2004, Virginia was a safe Republican State, and was only carried by the Democrats once in this period. However, in 2008 and 2012, President Obama won here, both times by around five percent. Virginia has been considered a key state throughout this election campaign, and was perhaps one of the main reasons that the Clinton campaign chose former Virginia Governor (and now Senator) Tim Kaine to be Hillary Clinton’s running-mate. Polling suggests that this move has paid off, and Clinton holds a strong lead here in the run-up to election day.

Prediction: Clinton.

Washington

Has voted Democrat in the past seven presidential elections, and the Democrats have a strong advantage here again. Will be an easy Clinton win.

Prediction: Clinton.

West Virginia

West Virginia was won by Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis in the 1988 Presidential Election, and held by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. However, since then it has been reliably Republican, and the last three Presidential Elections have seen Republican landslides here. Expect another Republican landslide this time around.

Prediction: Trump.

Wisconsin

Often considered a battleground state, but has actually voted Democrat in the past seven Presidential elections. Clinton leads here comfortably, so expect the same this time.

Prediction: Clinton.

Wyoming

Reliably Republican, and has voted Democrat just twice since 1944. Will be an easy Republican win.

Prediction: Trump.

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As you can see from the above graphic, the following predictions would result in Hillary Clinton winning a commanding victory in the Electoral College. As for the popular vote, I do not expect the margin to be as large as Clinton’s margin of victory in the Electoral College suggests. In 2012, President Obama beat Mitt Romney by just 3.9 percent in the popular vote. If the polls are to be believed, and they sound believable, then the popular vote margin in this election will be greater. Although Hillary Clinton is doing slightly worse than Obama in many of the North-Eastern Democratic strongholds, she is doing considerable better in many of the Southern states. In 2012, Romney won most of these by double figure margins. Texas was won by more than fifteen percent, Arizona by eight, Missouri by nine, Idaho by almost 32. In this election, these margins will be much, much narrower. Given this, it would be unsurprising to see Clinton’s lead in the popular vote getting closer to seven or eight percent, maybe even ten if she does particularly well on the day.

But, it is the Electoral College that matters, and in the Electoral College Clinton is set to win comfortably, consequently winning the Presidency.

With the Presidential Election on November 8, we’ll find out soon enough whether these predictions are correct.

 

 

 

Gary Johnson wins this year’s Palin-Perry award.

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Libertarian Party candidate for President Gary Johnson. 

Libertarian Party candidate for President Gary Johnson is fast becoming the most mocked candidate in this Presidential debate on account of some of his mistakes during the campaign. Quite an achievement in an election featuring Donald Trump.

Johnson’s latest misstep brings back memories of the candidacies of Sarah Palin and Rick Perry for sheer idiocy.

When being interviewed on Wednesday on MSNBC, Johnson was asked the question, “Who is your favourite foreign leader?”

Johnson sighed and took a deep breath, clearly struggling to answer the question, before saying, “I guess I’m having an Aleppo moment.” This refers to Johnson’s now infamous television appearance in which he answered a question about Aleppo, the epicentre of the Syrian Civil War with, “What is a leppo?”

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Gary Johnson looks blank as he attempts to name his favourite foreign leader. 

After putting his difficulty in answering the question down to ‘brain freeze’, Johnson then quickly stated that his favourite foreign leader was the former President of Mexico. But he still didn’t know his name. His Vice-Presidential running mate Bill Weld then had to step in and put him out of his misery with the name of Vicente Fox.

Johnson’s original ‘Aleppo moment’ suggested that he was severely lacking in basic foreign policy skills, and this latest misstep only proves it further. This won’t impress traditional Republicans amongst whom Johnson has proved relatively popular due to their concerns over Donald Trump’s foreign policy credentials. Could Johnson’s mistakes therefore prove beneficial to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy?

Johnson’s inability to remember a single world leader who he admired, brings back memories of similar mistakes during previous Presidential campaigns.

For example Sarah Palin’s (when running as John McCain’s running mate in 2008) failure to name a single newspaper or magazine that she had read, instead answering: “Um, all of ’em, any of ’em that, um, have, have been in front of me over all these years.”

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In an interview during the 2008 Presidential Campaign, Republican Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin infamously failed to name a single newspaper or magazine that she had read. 

 

Similarly, during the 2012 Republican Primary debates, Rick Perry could only remember two of the three federal government departments that he was pledging to scrap, one of his keynote policies.

 

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During the 2012 Republican Primary Campaign, Rick Perry (left) couldn’t remember one of his keynote policies. 

So Gary Johnson’s ‘brain freeze’ is just the latest in a long line of similar moments during Presidential campaign.

Both the Palin and Perry incidents were famously satirised on Saturday Night Live, and one would expect that comedians will have similar fun at the expense of Gary Johnson over the next few weeks.

For Sarah Palin, the interview in question proved to be the spark for her loss of public support and descent into caricature, whilst for Perry it signalled the beginning of the end for his Presidential ambitions. What is interesting in the case of Johnson though, is that his poll numbers haven’t yet been hit as a result of his latest mistake. This perhaps points to the strangeness of this Presidential race. We’ve seen it time and time again with Donald Trump, candidates seem to be given far more leeway to make mistakes (unless you’re considered to be part of the Washington elite of course), and perhaps this is why Johnson is yet to haemorrhage support. Either way, this election just gets stranger and stranger.

Should Gary be allowed to debate?

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Getty Images. 

“Let Gary debate. Let Gary debate.” The chant rang around the recent rally held in Seattle by Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson and his running mate, Bill Weld. Alas, Johnson’s supporters were to be disappointed.

On Friday, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that both Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had failed to make the cut for the first presidential debate, due to be held on 26 September.

Johnson responded by describing the presidential debates as a “rigged game”, going on to say, “Democrats and Republicans make up the presidential debate commission, 15 percent is not the law. It’s Democrats and Republicans not wanting a Ross Perot on the stage again.”

He’s got a point.

The American Presidential electoral system conspires against third-party candidates, perhaps more than any other system in the world. Johnson certainly has some right to feel aggrieved at his exclusion from the first debate.

As a libertarian, Johnson has views that span the political spectrum. As such, it is difficult to predict whether his popularity is more of a danger to Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Johnson is fiscally conservative — he wants to abolish the minimum wage, abolish income tax and replace it with a national sales tax, as well as submitting a fully balanced budget. Yet, he is also very socially liberal — he favours the legalisation of marijuana, same-sex marriage, and abortion rights. With this melting pot of views he clearly has the potential to prove dangerous to both Clinton and Trump, whilst his socially liberal views give him the chance to court the young voters who are so far proving rather elusive to both candidates. Given Johnson’s potential to prove dangerous to both Clinton and Trump, there is little to gain from allowing him into the presidential debates. Consequently, it seems highly unlikely that he will make a debate.

Johnson says this is unfair, citing the case of Ross Perot who was allowed to take part in presidential debates during the 1992 Presidential Election. Johnson claims that Perot was granted permission to take part in the debates despite polling in single figures at the time. This isn’t strictly true. Throughout the early autumn of 1992, Perot was generally polling around 10 to 20 per cent. This was despite him having dropped out of the race between June and September due to various campaign difficulties. Prior to this temporary drop-out, Perot had been polling as high as 39 per cent. Therefore, for Johnson to compare his case to Perot’s is bending the truth a little. Perot clearly enjoyed a significantly higher level of nationwide support than Johnson currently does. In terms of the precedent set by previous presidential elections, the campaign of Gary Johnson has no divine right to be featured in the presidential debates.

However, that being said, this is no ordinary presidential election.

The 2016 Presidential Election has been particularly notable for the fact that this is the only occasion in recent times where both the candidates selected by the two major parties have proven to be quite so unpopular. Whilst both Clinton and Trump are adored by their base supporters, in the minds of swing voters they leave a lot to be desired.

Bearing this in mind, it seems fair that Gary Johnson be allowed to take part in the Sept. 26 Presidential Debate. In such a divisive election, allowing voters another option is definitely the right thing to do.

And yes, I know that as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are on the ballot paper then voters nominally have the option of voting for them. But, the fact of the matter is that their lack of media coverage means that the vast majority of the electorate have no idea who they are.

That Johnson has managed to reach double figures in the polls despite this lack of media exposure, suggests that many voters are interested in what he has to say. He has reached this height in the polls despite a polling system that works against him. Johnson has been shown to be doing particularly well amongst millennial voters, yet the main polling method used is through landline telephone, something most millennials don’t use. What’s more, much of the polling doesn’t even include Johnson, with polling companies generally restricting their polls to head-to-head match-ups between Trump and Clinton. Given these circumstances, it seems almost impossible for Johnson to reach the mythical 15 per cent polling threshold, and to gain inclusion in the debates.

Therefore, it seems only fair to allow him to share his vision for the future of America on the national stage, as well as a proper chance to explain (and be interrogated about) his monumental “what is Aleppo?” gaffe.

So, let Gary debate!